Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
